December 5, 2024: Is the Jockey, or the Jockey agent, or the horse?
Last week, a race fan brought up to us the importance of jockey agents in establishing their clients at the top of the jockey leader board on a regular basis. We certainly agree, but wonder if their importance is really just at the start of the relationship.
The Paulick Report article referenced by him listed Steve Rushing being the agent for now retired jockeys Ramon Dominguez and Rosie Napravnik. Both careers took off on a national scale with Rushing. Clearly, the agent’s contacts helped. So, when does their talent take over, or is it just the horse’s talent? If the latter, could it be the jockey just fits the horse, and the better the jockey, the more knowledgeable they might be as to what the horse needs to win.
However, once reaching the top, the jockeys pretty much become in demand, primarily, because owners want the best on their horses, whether the horses are claimers, or Grade 1 runners. We state this opinion based on this year’s stats. Flavien Prat appears to taken Irad Orti Jr.’s favorite son status with his incredible streak of stakes wins this year.
This competition is good for not only the bettors, but the race fans. So, when we give a nod to the ‘hot jock’ in a race, it isn’t just the jock, nor their agent, it’s always the horse, and the top horses get the top jocks.
November 21,2024: Time to Rethink this Handicapping Thing?
We realized something about our handicapping after a not-so-good day on Saturday. It wasn’t all bad, but it sure wasn’t profitable. So, we asked ourself the question after each race wagered on, why did we pick the contenders we did?
What we found with this simple exercise was that we used the same decision-making process we use in most of our daily life decisions. For example, when you buy a car, do you decided based on how fast the thing is? If so, do you handicap with speed figures? How about going with a popular brand of car? If so, do you just bet favorites? Then there’s the deciding based on looks? Do you pick your contenders based on how they look in the paddock, or post parade?
If your results aren’t leading you to picking the winning contenders, then maybe you want to try mixing up your decision-making. You know, break the habit kind of thing. What have you got to lose, just another unprofitable day handicapping?
November 14, 2024: And It Goes On and On
The Breeder’s Cup was designed to be a championship event, like the World Series. It certainly seems to have achieved that purpose. However, unlike other sports, horse racing goes on after it’s championship event, and it goes on in a big way.
If you look at the racing calendar from now until year end, you’ll see several big days on it. How great is that? We don’t have to wait months until the start of a new season.
Do we handicap these big days the way we handicapped the BC? Not really, because the Breeder’s Cup brings the best together from all over the world. These BIG days need the handicapping we employ for all the BIG days on the racing calendar. We can concentrate our efforts on the graded stakes, or any race on the cards. It’s whatever race jumps out at us.
So, just enjoy the uniqueness of the sport!
November 7, 2024: BC Recap
BC 2024 is in the books, but before we close it, let’s review what happened. Why? You ask as if we are doing this exercise to rub salt in our depleted bank rolls perhaps? The reason we do it stems from the BC being a unique event on the racing calendar. It brings the best horses in the various regions of the country and a multitude of foreign horses. Such mixed fields tends to making our picks with a bias.
We gave you a simple list of names to look for in this year’s event, because to look at the past performances of the horses only won’t be enough given the quality of the fields. Looking back on our suggestions, using the Euros as contenders in all the grass events was probably the best of the lot. We didn’t include the Japanese, or other foreign runners, which resulted in not including the Canadian-based Moira, and that was a mistake on our part. It’s not a bad strategy to pick contenders that have raced in the event before, even if they haven’t won.
Another tip holding true this year, as in years past, was keying on ownership, in particular, Godolphin and the Magnier, Tabor, Smith, Westberg group. Heck, the latter owned a part of Sierra Leone. Speaking of that BC Classic winner, we did suggest to watch for jockeys Prat and Irad Ortiz Jr. While Irad blew a sure thing in Cogburn, Prat is living up to his reputation as the Stakes jockey of 2024.
One of the things we missed was overlooking perennial winning jockeys Johnny V. and Joel Rosario. You just had to know the two of them wouldn’t go home winless. Another tip, we failed to look at was the home field advantage. It should have come as no surprise when California based runners won.
We aren’t going to beat ourselves up over these mistakes. Instead, we will keep them in mind for next year’s event, and if our minds fail us in this task, then we have this article to remind us!
October 31, 2024: BC 2024, Just Like Before
Ready for some BC handicapping? We bet you are, and that may be the best bet we make! Seriously, finding the contenders is easy. It’s constructing wagers that is difficult. Here’s what we mean.
Looking over the results from prior years, the same names for jockeys, owners, and trainers appear in the results. Last year, the juvenile turf races were won by the Euro shippers and trained by the likes of Appleby, O’Brien, and Gosden and ridden by the likes of Buick and Detorri. On the owners side, it doesn’t get as successful as the Tabor, Smith, Magnier, and Westerberg group.
For our handicapping, we look for these names and mark their horses as contenders. How to bet them depends on how deep you want to go with a vertical bet type like an exacta, triple, or even a superfecta.
Last year, as in previous years, the names associated with the winners were Mott, Pletcher, Brown for trainers, Ortiz and Prat for jockeys, and Goldophin for ownership. Unfortunately, the winners will not return for this year’s event, but new stars have emerged, while the aforementioned names will have to be considered in any handicapping of the dirt events.
Every year, we have heavy favorites, and this year is no exception with Thorpedo Anna and Cogburn. You have to remember though; these races draw the best in racing at the moment. The key is how you structure your bets around such favorites. Do you dig for upset horses? Do you single them in Pick bets? It is really up to you on how deep your bankroll will allow.
Remember you don’t have to bet every single BC race. Pick and choose from the ones that appeal to your handicapping and go from there. Overall, just have fun!
October 17, 2024: Which Race ?
When doing our advanced Breeder’s Cup research, we wondered about these “Win and You’re In” races. So much emphasis is placed upon them during the calendar year, and yet, the top horses in their respective divisions often have a couple of them going into the event. What does that mean, if anything?
Even if a horse doesn’t qualify by winning one, it still can qualify in other ways. (We won’t go into all that red tape.) What might be more important to our handicapping is what race the horses qualifying are running in.
For example, this past week, D. Wayne Lukas said his Seize the Gray will go in the dirt mile. Now, the horse has been running in the longer distance races throughout the year, and did win the Preakness. However, that win might have been a fluke, because he hasn’t done much since.
Of course, the same is true for the three-year-old colts as a whole. The best of the crop is Thorpedo Anna. Instead of going in the BC Classic though, she is running in the Distaff. The Distaff will have many older fillies and mares to compete against her, so, it won’t be a cakewalk, because she hasn’t beaten older anything.
Overall, we are going to look at why the top horses are running in the races they are. We are doing this to make sure we don’t just give a race to a horse based solely on past performances at different conditions than the race they are entered in.
October 10, 2024: Get BC Ready
After last weekend’s barrage of graded stakes, many of which were the “Win and You’re In” variety, you may have lost keeping track of who did what. So, our suggestion to you is to go to the Breeder’s Cup web site. There you’ll find all the winners of the many “Win and You’re In” races.
You’ll also find stories about the horses and connections. This type of information will be helpful in knowing who is who and what races the horses are being pointed to. For example, Bob Baffert said National Treasure will be pointed to a race less in distance than the BC Classic. You may not know about all the foreign horses either. So, going to the web site and reading articles on them will give you a needed insight, especially the turf races.
If you think last weekend was hectic, just wait until you have two days of nothing but BC, Getting to know a little bit about the horses now, will certainly help in not overlooking any of the entries. You certainly won’t have the time to do any in-depth handicapping, so, do it now when we are in the doldrums of having any significant races to watch.
October 3, 2024: Get 'em While You Can
This weekend, race fans have a ton of graded stakes to keep them busy. Many of these stakes are of the “Win and You’re In variety too. Given that most of the division titles are still up for grabs, these races should provide us with great racing, if last weekend was any indication.
So, our tip this week is to dive into the action, because we will enter the doldrums over the following weeks leading up to the Breeder’'s Cup. Oh sure, we’ll have plenty of state-bred races, but you need to get your fill of the graded stakes now to hold you over until the BC.
That said, those weeks offer a great opportunity to practice our handicapping, especially the management of our bankrolls. You don’t want to fall short for the BC, do you?
September 26, 2024: The Kind of Stakes to Like
This time of year, we usually have all those BC preview days and their “Win and You’re In” stakes. Things seem a bit different this year though. Santa Anita will still offer 2 win and in stakes, but will now has the California Crown Stakes, with a million-dollar purse. The distance isn’t the classic one of a mile and a quarter, but a mile and a 1/8th instead. This was a smart move because what trainer wants his charge to run in two mile and a quarter races a month apart?
The purse certainly has drawn the top names for the older horse division, as well as, several three-year-olds. Like most of the male distance runners this year, none of the field has shown any consistency. This fact will be a benefit to the handicappers because the field is wide open, thereby, giving us some nice horses at nice odds.
It will be interesting just what influence the race will have on the BC Classic, if any. So, stay tuned folks, as racing provides us with another great Saturday of races.
September 19, 2024: Girl Power at PARX
The days on the racing calendar for the three-year-old restricted stakes are dwindling down. Typically, the most interesting of these on an annual basis are the Cotillion Stakes and the Pennsylvania Derby, where both are Grade 1s with million-dollar purses. We say interesting because sometimes they draw some of the best of the crop, and the name isn’t bigger than Torpedo Anna running in the Cotillion.
Yes, she will go off at odds so low, why wager on the race. Fair enough, but there are wagers you can construct using her win, and still have a nice ROI. We could use the three graded stakes before the Cotillion and the PA Derby being run afterward. That bunch of stakes provides us with several Pick bets. Now, the morning line has a couple of heavy favorites in those races, but you have to think the other races are wide opened.
One of these races having a heavy favorite is the Greenwood, a G3 at a mile and a half on dirt. That’s right, dirt. And believe it, or not, there’s a long-distance specialist, on dirt, in Next. He is three for three this year going long distances on dirt and retains rider Luan Machado. We talked about her earlier in the year. After seeing her race at Saratoga, we are impressed. She seems to find a way to get her mounts in the money, which is really saying something at meets like Saratoga and Kentucky Downs with their top-heavy jockey colonies.
So, we are calling it ladies day at PARX, where we will at least watch Torpedo Anna and Luan Machado at work. And maybe do that Pick bet thing too.
September 12, 2024: Oh Canada!
There are a couple of tracks having stakes races this weekend. We are going to chose one of them to focus our handicapping on. That track is Woodbine, which happens to be in another country, Canada. We always look forward to this day on the racing calendar because the feature race is the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile.
There are also a total of four Grade 1 stakes and two Grade 3s. You might ignore the racing there because they consider the turf course as the main one, and the other is a tapeta surface. Don’t be scared off by the fact there is no dirt course, because the attention this day is on the turf runners, and the turf course there is one of the finest on the continent, maybe the world.
So, do we need to adjust our handicapping for these races? Probably not. Many of the U.S. connections ship their horses north for these races. You might be familiar with some of the trainers based there as well. Ever hear of a trainer named Casse? Yes, he has won so many of the important stakes held there, as well as, training titles. So many, that he is in the Canadian Racing Hall of Fame.
Getting back to handicapping, do we just bet the Casse horses? No, you should really do your homework and look over the past performances. Actually, this time of year, it is always a good practice to do so in order to get in shape for the Breeders’ Cup in November. No, the event won’t be at Woodbine, but don’t be surprised when the horses running in the stakes this weekend make an appearance at Del Mar come November.
September 5, 2024: Hello Flavien!
There were many brilliant performances by the equine athletes during the just completed Saratoga, but we have to acknowledge the show put on by jockey, Flavien Prat. He set a record by winning 18 stakes, and another record by winning 14 Graded Stakes for the meet. He bookended the meet with them by winning the first graded stakes, the Grade 1, Diana, and the last graded stakes, the Grade 1, Hopeful. These victories helped result in his meet leading $6, 610,757 in earnings.
He may not have won the jockey title for the meet, which goes to the jockey with the most wins, but this achievement by Prat makes the win title a footnote. For the year, Prat leads all jockeys in earnings at the moment with an eye-popping $31, 363 per start. No one else comes close. Get this - the amount was earned with more than 300 starts less than the next two jockeys on the list.
So, who is this guy? He was the champion apprentice rider in France for 2009. With the urging of some Southern California based trainers, who saw in him, a fantastic turf jockey, he moved to the U.S. in 2015. From there, he won numerous riding titles at both Santa Anita and Del Mar. Again, no one else came close to the amount of wins he was getting.
It was during this span that he caught our attention, but we became big fans after what he did when champion filly Vasilika retired. He rode her to a close second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf. She was sold for $1.5 million as a broodmare prospect the day after the BC, and was scheduled to ship overseas to her new owners. On that day, someone asked a question about her to Prat. Here’s what he was quoted as saying in the BloodHorse:
“Yesterday was the last time I rode Vasilika. I was so busy that I didn’t realize until I went to the jocks’ room that it would be the last time.”
He went on to say how he wanted to see her before she leaves the country. He immediately took action to find out if she was back at her Los Alamitos base until leaving. As the BloodHorse reported:
“…the 27-year-old Frenchman, along with his wife and infant daughter, drove the 32 miles in heavy-duty Los Angeles traffic from Arcadia to Los Alamitos to say goodbye to an equine ‘amie’”.
“I gave her some pats and hugs and fed her some carrots.”
As we grow ever so tired of seeing reckless jockeys, who don’t care for the horses they ride, and for the safety of the other horses and riders, this story is somehow remarkable.
It wasn’t until later, that Prat came into national focus by being the jockey of eventual Horse of the Year, Flightline. In the same year, 2022, Flightline would go on the win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he moved to New York in June from his base in Southern California. Against one of the winningest and most talented jockey colonies at the Saratoga meet, he continued to impress, with not only his turf riding, but on dirt as well.
To hear trainers, he impresses because he is a professional who is easy to work with. A jockey who isn’t a diva? What? A jockey caring more about the ride, than the win?
With all these achievements, where does he go from here? We hope he just continues to provide race fans the amazing rides that stamped his way to the top. As Bob Baffert calls Mike Smith, big money Mike, maybe we should start calling Prat, Favoring Francs Flavien?
August 29, 2024: Ready for a Roller Coaster?
Just when we were moaning about how the summer meets are wrapping up, we realized the Kentucky Downs meet has started. There’s only seven days of racing spread out over two weeks, but each day is jammed packed with stakes, many having purses over a cool million.
With such purses, the meet draws the top trainers, jockeys, and turf horses from around the country. For race fans though, it is must watch, because of the course itself. How can you describe it? Maybe a roller coaster, given its ups and downs and rights and lefts. There really are no words.
So, how can we handicap for such a course, with full fields running in each race? Well, past years have shown us that horses who have won there return to win again. That’s about the only known element to pass on. So, if you have a favorite turf trainer, or jockey, then go with them. You can’t do any worse than the public handicappers, who look like newbies.
Just watch, and hurry up, because it will be over as soon as it starts.
August 22, 2024: Big, Bigger, Biggest Race Day?
One of the arguably biggest of the big days in racing is this weekend at Saratoga. There are numerous Grade 1 events. Sure, you can say Kentucky Derby day has numerous Grade 1 races. With Travers Day, the stakes runners could be factors in the upcoming Breeders’ Cup, as has been true in recent years.
Division titles are on the line in most divisions, and no truer than the three-year-old colts. With the addition of Thorpedo Anna, who already has that division’s title sewn up, the three-year-old colt title could be even more confusing than it already is. Handicapping the race will be fun given we have three near the lead types and one dead closer. Such an arrangement could have a long-shot take the race. Or, we could have another blanket photo finish!
One thing is certain at this moment though. Big days bring out the newbies and party folks. They bet big, and mostly on the favorite. We railbirds know better. So, take advantage on what promises to be higher odds given on some nice horses in every race!
August 16, 2024: Change
Do you feel it? You might have, if you’ve been to a race track recently. There are changes being made at tracks from coast to coast. Emphasis appears to have shifted from the on-track visitor to the online bettors, especially, the sports book kind. How so?
The cards on weekends are being extended, which is turning a day at the races to a morning, noon, and evening at the races. The fields are shorter too. Sometimes, that can’t be helped because of the smaller foal sizes the industry is experiencing. Then there’s the weather. The summers have been much hotter causing violent storms.
So, what’s a race fan to do? There’s not much we can do. The times are changing, and we either go along with them, or….
August 8, 2024: Again?
Highs and lows are found in every sport, just ask any five-year-old playing soccer. This weekend, we witnessed both. The high for us was watching Next win the Birdstone Stakes on Sunday at Saratoga. He is a marathon distance specialist, who not only wins, but wins by many, many lengths, which is remarkable given the distance of the races.
He has won six straight since June of 1023 and has twelve wins in twenty-two lifetime starts. If you never heard of him, then you certainly haven’t heard of his jockey, Luan Machado. She has over 500 lifetime wins and was ranked 40th in earnings for 2023.
The connections run him almost every month, which gives us pause. Are they running him too much? We ask because of the lowest of lows we witnessed this weekend. A couple of weeks ago, we discussed how leaders in the sport can be calculated in many ways. One of these ways was number of wins on the year. One of the leaders with six wins for the year at the time was the six-year-old mare, Ova Charged. She didn’t make it to seven straight wins this year. She broke her right front fetlock and was euthanized in the Ladies Turf Sprint at Ellis Park. She had only four losses in nineteen lifetime starts.
Race fans are being given statistics on how equine fatalities are down and how all this research is being down to keep them going down, but we lost a fan favorite during a race. Was she racing too often? Did she have an undetected injury? Did the vets drop the ball in their pre-race evaluation? We don’t know. Hopefully, we will find out, but until then, we have to continue to demand every safety measure be taken for the equine athlete.
August 1, 2024: The Equine Athlete
It seems every time an Olympics is being held, like they are right now, we can’t help but make comparisons between the human athletes participating in the games, and the equine athletes, who we watch on a regular basis.
Both types of athletes train continuously, unless injured. The level of risk in being injured is unbelievably high in any competition, regardless, if there are humans, or equines competing.
What is special about the Olympics is how we get to see equine athletes in events, rather than races. Watching dressage, cross-country, or jumping, we get to see the versatility of the equine athlete.
The human athlete has to enjoy what they do given the hours, days, years, of their lives dedicated to their sport. Of course, some humans may enjoy their sport, but also look towards the fame and glory success may bring them. With the equine athlete, there is no doubt they love to run, although some may love the competition more than others.
What we mean by that comment is the immeasurable quality of heart. There’s a noted heart of a champion, when the physical effort may wane, but the heart takes over to strive for victory.
Whether, human or equine, athletes are a constant source of amazement to us mere mortals.
July 25, 2024: Who's On First?
After last weekend’s running of the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, we found it interesting on how Dornoch was now deemed leader of all horses running. So, we looked at the leading horses of 2024 to date. If you were to judge leaders by how much they earned this year, Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan is still number one on the list. His record is two wins out of six starts, meaning the largess of the Kentucky Derby purse is the reason he remains there.
What if we were to use win percentage to determine the leaders this year? It results in a whole new leader board. National Treasure, with his two wins in two starts is atop this ranking. Thorpedo Anna follows in second, with her sparkling four for four.
Although, Thorpedo Anna only reaches fifth place based on earnings list. Like the human world, where women generally earn less than their male counterparts, the purses for filly races are lower than the colts. Maybe, that’s a reason her trainer Ken McPeek is said to be mulling over her entry into the Travis Stakes, thereby, pitting her against the three-year-old colts. A strike for equality? Probably not, it’s the purse thing again.
How about if you were to sort the horses by number of wins for the year so far? If you did such a thing, you’ d find a horse named Tennessee Moon atop the list. Who? He is eight for twelve in 2024 running at places like Energy Downs 307. Where? Of course, his overall earnings total just shy of $100,000. Sitting in third place on that list is Ova Charged. She is six for six, and reached 41st on the earning list.
What does it mean? It means statistic can be viewed in many directions. So, before we crown a leader, it might be a good idea to look at a bunch of stats, not just earnings. More importantly for the handicapper, know your stats. Four wins in a row might not mean what it looks like at first glance. Or does it?
July 18, 2024: Favoring the Favorites?
In our discussions over the prior weeks, we have given handicapping tips for the variety of races filling the cards at meets like Saratoga. So far, we have talked about the Maiden Special Weight races, primarily for the two-year-olds, and the distance turf races.
The Quick Call Stakes, run on Sunday at the Spa, was a turf sprint at 5 ½ furlongs. We really liked the heavy favorite, Star of Mystery. She was a Euro import going up against the boys. That factor didn’t bother us though. What bothered us was how to construct a wager using the talented mare.
We decided the best way for us would be to wheel a daily double. (Yes, there are still daily doubles available.) So, by using all the horses in the race prior, since it appeared to be a wide-open race, and using Star of Mystery as a single, we were rewarded with a payout of $44.50 on the dollar.
We didn’t back wheel a double, which is using Star of Mystery, then picking all in the next race, because she paid so little for the victory. What resulted if you had done that wager is a payout of only $13.40.
Our point is to look over the races prior to the one with the heavy favorite, if using doubles. However, if you use a pick bet, then you have to be careful where the heavy favorites fall in the sequence. You certainly don’t want them early in it to get a decent ROI.
Overall, pick the favorites with caution. They aren’t a slam dunk.
July 11, 2024: When The Grass is Always Greener
As we get into the summer meets, we found one way to sharpen our handicapping tools for the cards they will present. A couple of weeks ago, we discussed how many Maiden Special Weight races appear this time of year. The cards are full of them, but summer is really the time for turf racing.
Yet, race fans don’t appreciate them as much as the dirt ones. There’s always the disappointment when it rains, and the fields for them are scratched down to a couple of entries. Also, it might be because they take some time to handicap. The fields are typically larger than the dirt variety. On the stakes level, trainers tend to place several of their horses in a race, which makes picking one of the bunch a tough task.
Then there’s how the turf distance races are usually run. There’s not much strategy employed. A slow pace is set, allowing the entire field to charge home in the stretch. From the top of the stretch, it is anyone’s race to win. That’s probably why we have seen the most successful turf jockeys coming from Europe. Racing over there is grass racing, and the tactics are to conserve energy for a charge home.
Names like Dettori, Buick, and Prat are European imports, hence, they know what they are doing out there. So, should our handicapping of the distance turf races center around the trainers with their numerous entries per race, or should we focus on these jockeys? Why not take every ounce of information you can get about each entry. You may find yourself using several of them to construct those multi-race wagers when turf races are filling the card.
Take advantage of the odds these full fields give us, and don’t skip over them, unless it’s raining of course.
July 4, 2024: A Race Fan's Kinda Holiday
We have a long holiday weekend before us, and you know there will be storms and rain on one or several of those four days encompassing it. What a better excuse to watch a stakes-filled weekend of racing?
There are numerous Derbies and Oaks, one set in Iowa and the other Indiana. There’s another Oaks too. This one at Delaware Park, which also has scheduled their feature race of the meet, The Del Cap. Want more Derbies and Oaks? Then you have to watch the two Grade 1 turf stakes, the Belmont Derby and the Belmont Oaks being scheduled at Aqueduct.
You want more reasons to watch? Well, Prairie Meadows has it’s two big days of racing. On their schedule, we have the aforementioned Iowa Derby and Oaks. However, the feature race is the Grade 3 Cornhusker for the older runners. Why care about Iowa racing? The big-name jockeys, trainers, and owners will be sending horses. If successful, many of them will show up in the entries for stakes at Saratoga. You think we jest? Just watch and see.
With all these great races before us, race fans are sure to be celebrating!
June 27, 2024: Those Baby Races
The two much anticipated summer meets will be starting in the coming weeks, Del Mar and Saratoga. The cards at these two tracks are filled with highly-pursed maiden races. For many of us, this condition presents a road-block in our handicapping for several reasons.
Of course, the obvious reason is that the horses entered never won a race, with many never having raced at all. Most handicapping involves looking at the past performances. With first-timers there are none. Even if they did race previously, and are entered in an MSW, it means they lost. So, what good is it having a past performance at this level?
Actually, a past performance can tell us something. Maybe the horse ran greenly in the beginning of the race, but got its act together somewhat by the finish. Now, if the runner had several attempts at the level, we can only wonder why?
The other thing to look at is the published workouts. If they ran, or didn’t run in a race up to this point, they would have workouts. We can compare how they worked out at similar distances. Some may even standout because of a bullet work. We have to remember though, fast or bullet works don’t mean they know what they are doing. They probably will be winded before the eighth pole.
So, what else can help? Pedigrees are the usual default in our handicapping of the maiden races. The ones we are typically drawn to are the sires that have offspring winning at a noticeable rate right away in their careers, like Into Mischief. Other notable sires like Gun Runner always draw attention, but maybe not early in their runnings.
Pedigrees are fascinating because they tell us something about the price tag on those two-year-olds we will see debuting all summer. So, try not to avoid the MSWs at these meets, because if you do, you might miss the next Triple Crown winner.
June 20, 2024: Feeling the Heat
As a great portion of the country is undergoing an extreme heat wave for this time of year. (When the upper reaches of Maine are hotter than Miami, you know things aren’t normal.) It got us thinking about the equine athletes who continue to race under these conditions. We noticed that start times at certain tracks were earlier. We also noticed shorter times between races. Horses seemed to be showered in the paddock before races.
Sure, horses are outdoor animals, but like people, extreme heat can stress them out. Keeping them in shady barns with fans blowing, along with supplying them plenty of water appear to be beneficial, but racing in the heat? Even with these measures, we will have to wait and find out if any fatalities were noted.
So, as we have good news trickling in about reduced fatalities in the sport, we will remain watchful to see if everything possible is being done for the safety of the equine athletes.
Stay cool, and fingers crossed!
June 13, 2024: Worlds Colliding?
Last week we wondered what would happen when one of the oldest stakes races in the America met the oldest sports venue in America. We got our answer on Saturday when Belmont Park came to Saratoga Race Course. It wasn’t just the Belmont Stakes that was run at a different track, there were multiple Grade 1s that previously called Belmont Park home run on the undercard. To the Saratoga regulars, it was certainly a clash of cultures.
The big city event didn’t seem to fit with the bucolic backdrop. People, whether race fans, or not, go to Belmont Park for the Belmont Stakes, and not for the sake of going to Belmont Park. A metropolis such as New York City drowns a sports venue making it just another place to go in a city overflowing with places to go. Now, Saratoga Race Course is the polar opposite. People attend the races at Saratoga, or run their horses there because of the venue. How many times do we hear at other tracks, that horse ran at, or won at Saratoga. That connotation gives immediate notice to a horse and it’s connections.
Ironically, the track Saturday had a strong speed bias, which could have been aided by the strong wind blowing in the faces of the fields as they turned for home. Gusts that strong have been known to slow runners, thereby, making it difficult for those behind the leaders to catch up. We saw lead horses drawing away in race after race. Kudos go to those who fought the wind to even finish in the money. It is a racing angle we often forget, along with the one where tracks are typically fast on big race days. What this means for our future handicapping, we will just have to wait until the winners run again.
We also won’t know the results of having Belmont Park move to the Saratoga site will mean to the first-time visitor. Did they attend just because it was a Triple Crown race? Did they find out why the venue is often referred to as one of the premiere race spots in the world? Will the regulars at the track feel marginalized and forgotten because of the emphasis on the newcomers. Will the track get over feeling vanquished by Belmont Park? The answers to such questions may be lost in the tremendous amount of money made. Let’s hope not, because for the sport to be shown in a positive light, the feelings of all fans, and even tracks, need to be taken into account.
June 6, 2024: Start Spreading the News, and Other Stuff
So, what happens when one of the most historic horse races in America meets the most historic sports venue in America? Well, we are all going to find out this Saturday when Belmont Stakes is run for the first time at Saratoga Race Course. Will we see history?
With a packed stakes card, race fans hope for competitive, top-flight fields, if not history being made. With such a lineup, the one thing to remember is to plan out our wagering. With the card loaded with stakes races bringing us top names in their respective divisions, do we really want to spend our bankroll on just the feature race?
Looking over the card at the beginning of the day is the way to go. Which races are bet worthy, and which are watch worthy. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to make some smaller bets on those watch-worthy races, if only to save the bankroll. How does that old saying go? Money is like manure; it doesn’t do any good unless spread around.
On that note, just have fun without getting so caught up with your handicapping, you forget to enjoy yourself.
May 30, 2024: Do the Belmont Stakes Changes Really Matter?
Why do race fans look forward to the Belmont Stakes, even when there’s no Triple Crown bid on the line? Of course, if there is one, then race fans, casual fans, and the party-crowd are all-in. However, a Triple Crown attempt happens so rarely in recent times. Sure, we had American Pharoah and Justify actually achieve the feat, but what about having a horse that won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness going to the Belmont for the chance?
Regardless, the race fans will watch, as they do any BIG race on the racing calendar; the casual fans will watch, if they aren’t doing anything else; and the party-goers, well, do they even know what a Triple Crown is? One thing is certain, they do know a good party!
This year there is a change of venue. The race will be run for the very first time at Saratoga Race Course. Unfortunately, the race can’t be run at the expected mile and a half distance, so, it will get an * for that. Before you go and downgrade the race, let it be known that the race was not always run at a mile and a half. Before 1874 the distance was a mile and 5/8ths. Then intermittently from 1890 through 1905 it was a mile and a quarter. The mile and a half distance appeared in1874 through 1889, and continuously from 1926 until now.
It should be pointed out that the mile and a quarter distance at which it will be run is the “Classic” distance. The American Classic races are taken from the five British Group I stakes for three-year-olds. These races include: The Oaks; The Derby; The St. Leger; The 2000 Guineas for the colts; and the 1000 Guineas for the fillies. In either country, with so many great stakes races being run, to have only five each makes them, classic.
So, start spreading the news, no venue change, nor distance reduction is going to stop this BIG event in the sport.
May 23, 2024: The After-Preakness Watch Party
It seems like after every Preakness, there is a sense of disappointment when the Kentucky Derby winner doesn’t go on to win the second leg of the Triple Crown. The reason for this disappointment is that we go onto the Belmont Stakes without a chance for a Triple Crown being witnessed. However, this year’s Preakness victory by Seize the Grey didn’t lead to a great deal of disappointment for us.
Why? Well, it gave the legend, D. Wayne Lukas another Triple Crown stakes victory, and with that victory, the over two-thousand shareholders in the horse were a pleasant sight to behold. Instead of the usual prominent names being seen in the winner’s circle, we were given an everyman photo.
Even though we won’t have a Triple Crown on the line for the Belmont, the focus on the three-year-old crop remains on their pedigrees. Seize the Grey’s victory continues the success of the Mr. Prospector line through Fappiano. With his sire Arrogate dying at such a young age, Seize the Grey was a member of his last crop. So, the question facing the connections is not the one of where to run the colt next, but the one of preserving the line by retiring any of Arrogate’s successful offspring from this final crop.
Since such decisions are out of the race fans’ hands, we will just take a backseat to the breeding industry per usual.
May 16, 2024: One for the Money, Two for the Show?
The Preakness is here. It seems silly that so many months are spent on the Kentucky Derby entries, and we have only two-weeks for the second jewel in the Triple Crown to assemble. It is nice to have a few horses coming back in a now unheard of two weeks. Of course, all the attention will be on Mystik Dan, as it should be, since he is the only Preakness entry having a chance at a Triple Crown bid.
The scratch of what would have been the ML favorite, Muth doesn’t mean Mystik Dan will have an easy win. The weather forecast is for rain. Horses liking the lead tend to do well on sloppy tracks; however, at this distance, we have to wonder if any speedy types can hold on. All this pondering does make for exciting race watching. After the Kentucky Derby photo finish thrilling race fans, let’s hope for another close finish to keep the excitement level high.
The race itself has been around since 1873, which lends itself to a great deal of trivia. For example, the Woodlawn Vase presented to the winning connections is thought to be one of the most valuable trophies in sports. It was made in 1860 by Tiffany and Company, then buried during the Civil War to prevent it from being destroyed for its metal. It was eventually dug up and used as a trophy again, but it wasn’t until 1904 that it was given to the Maryland Jockey Club.
That the winning horse is draped with a garland of Black-Eyed Susans, the state flower is false. Sure, they look like Black-Eyed Susans, but are really a type of daisies, since the Black-Eyed Susans don’t bloom until summer.
Actually, the Preakness was run before the Kentucky Derby eleven times from 1888 and 1931. In 1890, both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes were run on the same card at Morris Park.
Lastly, if for some reason Mystik Dan is not the favorite, then don’t be sorry for him. He’d be in good company. Sunday Silence, Sea Hero; Silver Charm; Real Quiet; Charismatic; and Giacomo just to name a few Kentucky Derby winners, who did not go off as the favorite in the Preakness.
Many of these horses did go on to win the Preakness, even though not favored to do so. For the sake of a potential Tripple Crown, we hope Mystik Dan will be counted among them after this year’s race.
May 9, 2024: A Nice Result
The one certainty of the modern day running of the Kentucky Derby is the uncertainty. While we anxiously watched hoping there would be no breakdowns, we missed the brilliant ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. It was a twenty-horse field after all, and past runnings have shown us that things happen. It is apparent that lucky rides do make a difference. Those ground saving rail rides, or finding of holes at the right time, or even loose leads all seem to be the formula for victory.
We did catch the winner’s race on the numerous replays, that were surprisingly shown on mainstream media in the days following. It was refreshing to hear positive things being said about the sport and the excitement from non-race fans about the thrilling photo finish.
There is a continued buzz about the race in social media circles as well. However, those posts center around the celebrities in attendance of course. Does all this positive attention mean the sport is saved? Probably not, as we have to stay alert to the safety of the equine athletes, who we think were the true celebrities in attendance at the race.
May 2, 2024: Why Change Now?
After months and months, and more months of hype, the Kentucky Derby is finally here. By now, the day-in and day-out race fans have had their fill. It’s now the race fans turn.
How do we approach such a hyped event? The answer is simply, we handicap it just like we handicap any race. The only difference is the concern in the back of our minds when a race is run having twenty, lightly raced horses. Throw in the high purse amount and twenty owners, trainers, and jockeys who would do anything to win the race, and you have been given a recipe for potential disaster.
So, with these concerns haunting the backs of our minds, we will do what we always do, eliminate the favorite. If we can’t get around the favorite, then we look at doing a multi-race wager. Thankfully, the undercard offers great races to build at least one multi-race wager.
If we just want to treat each race on the card individually, then there’s always the option of betting on multiple long shots in the feature. The race is filled with horses that were bred to go shorter and those bred for the turf. Our first instinct is to go with the horses bred to go long on dirt, but that will certainly lead us to the favorite.
If we are forced to use a favorite, then Sierra Leone would be our choice for one reason only. He is inbred to the legendary distance dirt sire Fappiano. Fappiano is a horse we have looked for in a pedigree for years. It can be argued he died decades ago, so, how could his genes still be strong in a pedigree? We really don’t care because sometimes you have to go with your gut.
Unfortunately, this gut play doesn’t play well when a race fan is pounded with questions from the once-a-year race watchers. We have come to just giving these folks a pick. If we are correct, then there still will be complaints, and if we are incorrect, does it really matter? None of these pseudo-race fans will remember who the winner is a year from now.
The most important thing for us to do on the first Saturday in May is to just handicap as we usually handicap, and have fun doing it!
April 25, 2024: The Races We Are Given
Boy, we sure are glad we followed our own tip from last week. Instead of getting all caught up with the Kentucky Derby hype taking over the racing media, where we had to read every Derby top-ten or Derby dozen list posted by an almost endless number of so-called experts, we just handicapped the stakes races given to us last weekend.
We sure feel rewarded for doing it too. We got to see some great turf races; a stakes for the older racers with the Oaklawn Hcp.; one for the older fillies and mares with the Santa Maria; and even a Derby, with the Illinois Derby. Why care about a Derby that isn’t the Kentucky one at this time of year? Well, the horses running in the Illinois Derby may appear in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness.
As opposed to months of Kentucky Derby handicapping, we will have only two-short weeks of handicapping the Preakness. You may think that there will be only one horse to look at for that race, the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Why diminish the race with that sort of thinking?
Don’t be a Derby snob. As we have been saying all year, these stakes restricted to the three-year-olds stand on their own, so, should be handicapped on their own. To do otherwise will cause us to miss some great races.
April 18, 2024: A Piece or the Whole Pie?
We’ve been yapping about the same thing all year long it seems, specifically, the hype surrounding the Kentucky Derby, one race. Now that the so-called prep races are over, can we just concentrate on the Kentucky Derby? In a word, no.
Look at all the stakes races filling the weekend cards all over the country. What do we know about the stars of the other divisions of the sport? Probably not as much as we know about the field for the Kentucky Derby.
So, why spend all of our precious handicapping time on just one race? It’s a field of twenty horses. Is your devotion just going to lead to the favorites, or are you just going to spend your wad betting them all because you can’t make up your mind?
Seriously, how about handicapping what typically is a great undercard of stakes races on Kentucky Derby day, or the Kentucky Oaks card the day before? Find out who the stars are in the other divisions. When the three-year-olds aren’t front and center, we’re likely to have some incredible races to still handicap, so, it will be helpful to know as many stars as possible.
Why settle on a fraction, when there’s a whole for us.
April 4. 2024: What Derby Are We Betting?
The last of the Derbies before the Kentucky Derby next month are this weekend. Hopefully, you won’t fall into the same trap we tend to do every year. Instead, of handicapping these Derbies called Kentucky Derby preps, as if you are handicapping the actual Kentucky Derby, just handicap the races as they stand.
Here’s what we mean: you’ll see entries that are no-doubt Kentucky Derby runners in the fields of the Santa Anita Derby; the Bluegrass Stakes, and the Wood. That doesn’t mean we ignore the rest of their competitors. To do so results in wagering on the favorites because of their Kentucky Derby prospects, and who wants to bet chalk when we have competitive races.
So, we tell ourselves to look for some long-shots, with the thinking that losing on a long-shot is better than making a nickel on the dollar by betting the favorites. If you can’t get around the favorites no matter how hard you try, then at least do a multi-leg wager surrounding the favorite in the feature race with long-shots in the other races. These are great races on their own, so, let’s not put the proverbial cart before the horse!
March 28, 2024: The "Real" Reason
While most of U.S. race fans will be focusing on the Florida and Arkansas Derbies this weekend, we won’t forget about the Dubai World Cup also being held Saturday. That race will feature a world-class field, as it typically does, but it also has the return of Senor Buscador.
Remember him? He was the horse who won the world’s richest race, the Saudi Cup. Never having won a Grade 1, the victory was quite a surprise to the international racing community. Our article after the race gave credit to his jockey, Junior Alvarado. Since Junior took the reins, the horse showed improvement with each race, but not enough to get anywhere close to favoritism.
What had us pondering was why the connections kept racing him at the highest levels of the sport without any performances to prove he belong there? We summed it up to both jockey and connections having faith in the horse.
However, thanks to friend and fellow race fan, Jim, we have found the “real” reason as to why the connections were so persistent, or as we said, “never lost heart”. Here’s what Jim told us:
“NEVER LOST HEART??? They sold him down the river. Peacock gave up a percentage of a $20 million purse for cash upfront for both the Saudi race as well as the upcoming Dubai contest. Plus, the horse ran in the Rent-a-Sheik's colors and Peacock was denied access to the winner's circle?
NEVER LOST HEART??? They never thought he could win so they cashed-out in advance of the races. They did it for the money, not for the horse. This was the worst hedge since Lehman Brothers.”
Jim, we appreciate your passion, and can only hope you forgive us our naivety. Seeing the joy on Junior’s face led us astray. With all the negative news coming out of the sport, the performance seemed to strike a positive note. Alas, it appears otherwise.
March 21, 2024: The "Real" Derby
It’s officially Derby season. No, we aren’t talking about those Kentucky Derby points getting races that we have been inundated with since last year. We are referring of course to the stakes races that start with the Louisiana Derby this Saturday, and end in the fall.
The word “Derby” in a race title goes back centuries ago in England around 1780, when Edward Smith-Stanley and Sir Charles Bunbury used a coin toss to decide whose name would apply to a race for three-year-olds they were having. Edward Smith-Stanley won, and since he was the Earl of Derby, the race was henceforth known as “The Derby”. This race is still run, but under the name, the Epsom Derby.
So, in this country, we have all these races restricted to three-year-olds with name having Derby in it. After the Louisiana Derby, there’s the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, and Arkansas Derby. All of those are Grade 1 stakes. Of Course, some of them aren’t called Derbies. There are the Preakness and Belmont of course. Later in the year, we have the Travers and Haskell.
There are some other lesser-known Derbies, like the Iowa Derby and Ohio Derby too. Some aren’t even stakes because they are held at smaller, regional tracks. Still, it’s neat to see these races held with great fanfare for the race fans there.
So, that’s why we are calling it “Derby Season”. Maybe, instead of looking at the ones leading up to the Kentucky Derby as merely preps for that race, we should just enjoy them for what they are, fun races on the calendar.
March 14, 2024: Top of the Crop
Do you follow any of those “Derby Dozen” lists? We don’t see the point for doing them for just one race, so, we came up with our own list of sorts. We call it the Top-of-the-Crop.
With so many BIG races for the three-year-old crop, why just concentrate on the Kentucky Derby? We found our list to be helpful keeping track of the best performances to date. Given how little these horses race, it’s nice to be reminded of just what races they ran in. Remember when Arcangelo won the Belmont Stakes last year? We didn’t see him again until the Travers in August. In between, we had some other races restricted to the crop. Now, some of these races might not have been Grade 1’s, but they were graded.
Also, some of the runners later in the year might not have run earlier in the year. Arrogate is a good example of one of those types. Another reason we do such a list is because after the Kentucky Derby, many of the runners go off to specialties, like turf races, or sprints.
Overall, it’s fun way to get to learn just who these three-year-olds are, and if their names show up in entries for a race, we can just see if they made the list!
March 7, 2923: Competitve Fields?
We found two of the three, three-year-old stakes from last Saturday drawing our interest. The first was the Fountain of Youth, which at first glance had a competitive field with Dornoch, Locked, Speak Easy, and Victory Avenue. However, come race time, the last three were found to be scratched leaving Dornoch in a runaway. How disappointing.
The second stakes we were looking forward to was the San Felipe at Santa Anita. It was a small field, but it featured Nysos. We wanted to see if he could repeat his last race performance. However, he was scratched leaving a four-horse field. Again, how disappointing.
We did manage to salvage some race watching of a competitive field of three-year-olds, when viewing the Gotham Stakes. Sure, a top-of-the-crop horse hasn’t won this race in who knows how long. However, when we looked over the field, boy, were we surprised. Cox had three entered. Clement had two. The west coast-based O’Neill sent one. Pletcher and Rice had one each. So, there was a 12-horse field after scratches. A field that did not disappoint as Joel Rosario brought home Deterministic at decent odds for the Clement barn.
The moral of this story? Don’t overlook a three-year-old stakes just because the winner may not go on to get an Eclipse Award.
February 29, 2023: Savoring the Moment
Perhaps the best story in horse racing in who knows how long happened Saturday. Senor Buscador showed the entire planet just how much heart matters, especially when the connections never lost heart in him.
Just look at his past performances. Sure, he finished second to National Treasure in the Pegasus in January. However, he never won a Grade 1. So, why would the connections keep running him in races like the Breeders’ Cup?
It probably makes no sense to the upper echelon in racing. It doesn’t matter what they think. It doesn’t matter to the racing media either, who perceive the effort as a fluke. Sure, go ahead and dismiss the little guys.
Race fans had to enjoy it though. How often do we witness such a thing? Never? So, how did it happen? One reason might be the fact his jockey Junior Alvarado rode the horse in the past two starts. He also worked him. To hear Junior tell it, he wanted to find out what the horse wanted, and that made all the difference.
We also enjoyed seeing his pedigree. Of course, A.P. Indy in a pedigree is always a plus, but for us, it was seeing the name Fappiano. We have been talking forever about the influence of Fappiano in distance champions, and there he was, the father of Senor Buscador’s Dam.
If he never wins another race, so what? He gave us a much-needed moment.
February 22, 2024: Cha-Cha-Cha-Changes
How often in your handicapping do you pay attention to changes? Well, if you overlooked the fact that trainer Chad Brown put blinkers on Sierra Leone for his 2023 debut in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds last Saturday, you missed a nice payout.
Listening to jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, the equipment change seemed to make all the difference. Given the fact that the colt had other obstacles, such as, not having raced since the Remsen in the fall, and having to negotiate a very sloppy course coming from behind, the performance was indeed impressive. It is risky to pick a horse, especially a lightly raced three-year-old based on an equipment change, but we need every piece of information to make a good decision.
Many times, it isn’t an equipment change that does the trick. It could be a distance change, or a surface change. The example of a surface change making all the difference in a horse’s performance is the great Cigar. He wasn’t so great when running on turf, so, when trainer Bill Mott moved him to the dirt, well, the streak began and the rest is history as they say.
So, our tip this week is to watch for changes. Specifically, are the changes being made as a fishing expedition, or are they the result of something noted in a previous race?
February 15, 2024: There's no pouting in horse racing!
The poor racing media, unlike other sports, the media can’t interview the athletes. What happens then? The media go to the human connections of the equine athlete.
This reliance on the connections has resulted in a lack of focus on the main issue concerning race fans, specifically, the safety of the equine athletes. A perfect example of the misguided focus was addressed in a Paulick Report article this past week. It seems the racing media is upset. The Eclipse Award of Merit wasn’t made in a unanimous decision.
Thankfully, the article included a link to 2021 report on how the Eclipse Awards are determined. You guessed it. The majority of voters are from the racing media. Now you know why every December, this group’s focus is how they are going to vote. As the article states:
“Humans are listed under their category in various ways, showing leaders by wins, by earnings, and by graded winners. Complicating matters in the owner and breeder categories is the popularity of partnerships in modern racing. Earnings and wins are shown by entity according to the way they appear in the racing program, not per individual.”
Is that why the results of the voting every year seem to fall in line with those humans at the top of the leaderboards? Probably. What we would like to know is why those atop any leaderboard for suspensions during the year aren’t tossed out of consideration?
Why should race fans care about the juvenile pouting of the racing media then? We shouldn’t. However, it makes us wonder how they can assume such self-importance? Who is the audience their pandering is directed to? It certainly isn’t the lowly race fan.
February 8, 2024: Our Favorite Favorites
Since the beginning of the year, we have been pounding away at how to wager on favorites. The past two weekends of stakes racing provided excellent examples of why we don’t like heavy favorites in any wagers.
Two weeks ago, National Treasure won the purse-rich Pegasus World Cup. Sure, he was favored, but paid a nice $7.20. Now, that’s a payoff we can live with, especially when making multi-race wagers. Last weekend, we had several races for the three-year-olds. We take an interest in these races, not because of all the hype that they are “Derby Preps”, but we want to learn about the lightly raced crop for all the Grade 1s during the year for them.
These age-specific races lend themselves to nice payouts. In the Southwest, winner, Mystik Dan paid $24.80 and in the Holy Bull, Hades paid $20.40. Both race results show why it just doesn’t pay to back the heavy favorites.
The three-year-old winner that impressed us most was Nysos in the Bob Lewis Stakes. The irony is that with all the hype for one race in the coming months, the Kentucky Derby, the horse can not be entered because of the ban placed by CDI on trainer Bob Baffert. Does this matter? No, it doesn’t, because of the opportunities available to the connections to run the horse in other high-profile races throughout the year.
January 15, 2024: When left with only palm trees
With many tracks closed because of weather this past weekend, we looked to those having palm trees to do our handicapping. Looking over the Gulfstream card before the race day, we knew there would be heavy favorites in each race because of Irad Ortiz Jr. So, even a Pick 3 using those favorites proved to be unprofitable until the very last race.
The last Pick 3 of races 8 through 10 paid $314.10. How? Why? Well, Ortiz did win the first leg, but shockingly, he wasn’t on the heavy favorite. Still the horse went off at lower odds than if some other rider was aboard. The next leg had a $16.20 winner, but it was the final race on the card that delivered a $87.80 winner.
So, would you have been better off playing a Daily Double with the last two races, or just making win bets on anything other than favorites? We can’t answer that question because it takes luck, and luck can’t be determined.
The problem every week with handicapping the Gulfstream card is Ortiz. When he wins, there’s no profit to be made because he’s on the heavy favorite. Sure, you could bet hundreds on his favorites, but do you want to risk that much for a bad ROI?
We looked at the Santa Anita card as well. Yes, they have palm trees too. Again, the highest price winner was in the last race paying $24. Does this result, in conjunction with the Gulfstream last race result, mean we should only play the final race on any card? Try and watch an entire race card without betting until the final race.
The problem with Santa Anita racing right now is the small fields for dirt races. Having small fields diminishes our opportunities for nice ROIs. So, we can concentrate on the turf racing there, but only if the fields are more than seven horses.
Our quest to find worthy favorites to use in constructing wagers is an ongoing process, but the knowledge we gain every week will prove helpful.
January 18, 2024: What if?
We know what you’re thinking. If you can have a nice payout playing a daily double using a favorite in the second leg like we did last week, what can happen if you play a Pick 3? To answer this question, we looked over the results from Gulfstream Park’s Saturday card. Why that card? Well, many favorites ran in each race, and here’s an example of what those favorites winning had on the Pick 3 outcomes:
If you played the first Pick 3 on the card, which started in Race 1 and ended in Race 3, you would have a $34.85 payout. That sequence included a favorite winning, so, the result wasn’t too bad. The next several Pick 3s had two favorites winning legs, so, the payouts were in the single digits. However, the Pick 3 starting in Race 7 and ending in Race 9 had no favorites coming in, so, the payout was $88.05.
We want to use a favorite to our advantage, and not base our wager on luck like you would have needed for that Pick 3, unless you played them all in each leg, which is never an option. Looking at the two Pick 3s surrounding the Race 7 through Race 9, you’d find favorites in one leg of those Pick 3s, but you would have payouts of $40 and change.
Again, how much profit you would have made depended solely on how many picks you made in each leg, and therein lies the rub. What it all means is that you have to look over an entire card, not only to find worthy favorites, but not playing many horses in the other legs. It seems like a lot of work, but the reward can be worth it.
January 11, 2024: Those Nasty Favorites
Our second handicapping tip of the year follows along with our tip from last week, but instead of avoiding the favorite, we have an idea of using the favorite, and still make a nice profit. It all has to do with bet type.
The feature race on the Santa Anita card Saturday was the San Vincente Stakes. Bob Baffert trainee, Muth was the heavy favorite in a small field. So, we stayed away and looked through the card at other opportunities where we could use a favorite. We hit upon Big City Lights, who was co-favored in a five-horse field in Race 5.
We realized that with such a small field using a bet type offered for just that race wouldn’t be worth it. So, we looked at the race before it. It was an MSW with a nice field. By playing a Daily Double using several of these maiden runners and taking Big City Lights in the next race, there was a better chance of making a profit that wasn’t just pocket change.
Our “luck” held when a $38 winner came in for the first leg of our double. You really want to go with the race prior to the one your favorite is runner in because it is the amount of your bet on the favorite in the next race. So, when the favorite came in, the Daily Double paid $98.
However, Santa Anita has a $2 minimum bet on Daily Doubles. This minimum eats our profit, but we’ll still take the $58 we cleared on the bet, a bet that included a favorite.
January 4, 2024: Getting Ready for the New Year
Ready for our first handicapping tip of the new year? It’s a really simple one, so, why is it so difficult to implement, you may ask?
The reason is we tend to stick to the same old picks (favorites) and the same old bet types. The result is that your only making sixty cents on the dollar. Why bother?
Here’s what we suggest, go with your gut. That’s right, if some middle-odds horse, or long shot catches your eye as you peruse the past performances, go with it. It could be something subtle, like the horse does well at that particular track. Maybe the horse was claimed by a barn that noticed something that can be changed with the equine making it successful.
These little nuances are worth checking out, so, give it a try. When handicapping a race card, skip the favorite, even if you are drawn to the second favorite, at least it’s not “the” favorite.
This is the perfect time of year to get out of your handicapping rut. The BIG race days will soon be upon us, and you want to get out of the rut you may be in.