January 16, 2025: Community



As we look forward to a weekend with some interesting stakes to handicapping, like the featured LeComte for the three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds, we take a step back.

Race tracks are communities onto themselves, and as we have seen in Southern California these past weeks, they are also integral parts of larger communities.

Many of the Santa Anita community have had to evacuate, and in many cases have lost their homes to the horrific wildfires in Southern California. Many race fans have experienced first-hand the lost, while most of us have tried to assist from afar.

As we watch the races this weekend, maybe our good fortune at being safe in our homes will have us setting aside a part of our bankrolls intended for our handicapping, and use the funds to help. Afterall, it could be said the race fans are a far-reaching community that includes tracks everywhere.

January 9, 2025: So, What Do We Do?

Last week, we were whining about all the Kentucky Derby hype, given that it is just one race. However, ignoring all the hype doesn’t mean we ignore the so-called prep races. How do we not ignore the races?

We can handicap them like we do the two-year-old stakes later in the year. There are three reasons why we take this approach:

1.   Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.

2.   Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.

3.   Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.

Alright, we are being silly, but the point we are trying to make is that there isn’t much to go on when using past performances in our handicapping. There might be successes noted during the crop’s two-year-old season, but will that success transfer to year three?

When handicapping two-year-old MSWs, we more than likely look at the first-timers’ workout results, or even their pedigrees, because that’s all we have to go on. Pedigrees don’t seem to help much with the two-year-olds because of the short distances of the MSWs. (Turf first-timers usually go longer, which makes a peek at the pedigrees beneficial to a certain degree.)

So, is there anything to base our handicapping decisions upon when there’s little in the past performances? Maybe there is, if you want to do a bit of work. Look at the trainers’ comments after their colt’s races, whether the race is as a two-year-old, or three-year-old. Often, coverage of the stakes held this time of year will have comments from many of the trainers, and not just the trainer of the winner.

With that suggestion, we go forth on the Derby Trail!

January 2, 2025: Happy Birthday Horses!

The Two-Year-Old crop has just turned Three on New Year's Day, as all horses have their birthday on the first day of the year. However, age doesn't seem to matter in some cases. Have you noticed the annual Kentucky Derby points hoopla is starting earlier, and earlier. It’s gotten to the point where the two-year-old restricted stakes run in the prior year are touted to be crucial to our Derby handicapping. Really?

Come on, it’s just one race on a calendar filled with graded stakes restricted to the three-year-olds. Does the media do this hype to keep current race fans interested? If so, maybe someone should tell them that we are interested in all stakes racing, and not just one race called the Kentucky Derby.

Now, if they are doing it because the race garners many non-race fans watching it. So, is the aim to make race fans out of these non-race fans? If so, maybe someone should ask them when was the last time they saw a story about horse racing receiving national attention? If there was such a story, then it probably was some negative one about the sport so many seem to love to hate.

Race fans will watch the graded stakes for both the two-year-olds and the three-year-olds, because it’s what we do, and regardless of the racing media hype, as encouraged by CDI and it’s silly points system.