March 6, 2025: Around and Around They Go...
To us, the most interesting Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend was the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Baff had three of the field entered including the undefeated Barnes. As we watched, it seemed that the favored Barnes was given a hand ride out on the lead.
Even when challenged by the eventually winner, Journalism, he didn’t show much of an answer. Was he tired? Was he injured? Was he being saved for the SA Derby? No answers were found in the post-race comments.
To the victors go the comments, and Journalism deserved such praise after he beat yet another field having three Baffert runners. He previously won the Los Alamitos Futurity back in December. In that effort he defeated Gaming, Getaway Car, and Mellencamp.
Will the bunch of them meet again soon, or will they go their separate ways being entered in different final Kentucky Derby preps? Stay tuned. If it sounds like a soap opera along the lines of “How the Baffs Turn”, then all the better.
February 27, 2025: Who was that?
If you have been following these posts in recent weeks, then you know how we are watching the Kentucky Derby prep races in order to get familiar with the three-year-old crop.
This past weekend, there was an interesting result in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. We didn’t handicap the race, just electing to watch it. So, it was surprising, in a field full of the big barns, with the top trainers and jockeys, that a less well-known outfit had their horse, Coal Battle win it.
The horse responded well to the commands jockey Juan Vargas gave. The team breaking from the one post sat back as fast fractions were set up front. Then they moved to the outside, coming out of the far turn. The tiring leaders at that point presented little challenge, and the connections got their second win of the meet and garnered enough points to enter the Kentucky Derby.
Reading the comments by the connections afterward, they were happy, but seemingly humble. After all, trainer Lonnie Briley and jockey Juan Vargas aren’t exactly the names you’d expect to see giving comments after a Kentucky Derby prep stakes.
So, does the result put them into the national spotlight? Maybe briefly, because the favorite was charging down the stretch looking like he would relish a longer distanced race. At the same time, maybe Coal Battle was being geared down, or was he running on reduced energy?
As with all these results on the Derby trail, we won’t know until the next race is run.
February 20, 2025: Finishing Well
You may have skipped over the Sunland Park Derby last weekend, well, because the race hasn’t produce a Kentucky Derby notable probably since Mine That Bird. If you did watch the race, you were treated to a terrific photo finish.
Bob Baffert’s fourth-stringer, Getaway Car went to the lead as he prefers, and was caught at the quarter pole by D. Wayne Lukas trainee, Caldera. One would think at that point in the race, Getaway Car would fade. However, just the opposite occurred, and he came back to challenge Caldera.
As the two battled to the finish line, the large size of Caldera blocked any view of Getaway Car. He is definitely one-long legged equine. The photo showed Getaway winning by the narrowest of margins. What impressed us most about his effort was answering the challenge of Caldera. Most three-year-olds at this early stage of the year don’t respond in such a fashion.
We can’t wait to see these two again. One thing we took note of though, for our handicapping, was the purchase price of each horse. Getaway Car was purchased for $232,800 and Caldera for $85,360. We bring these prices up because many times with lightly raced horses, we determine quality by the price. For example, last year Seirra Leone went for approximately $2 million. He eventually paid off with that big win in the BC Classic.
Still, we’re going to stick to the pedigrees to assess quality, and enjoy the preps we are given.
February 13, 2025: Royal Flush
Oh, to be Bob Baffert now that Derby prep season is here. Baff has to be the envy of trainers having three-year-old prospects. We looked through the comments of other trainers, and no matter how hard they try to promote their Derby prospects, their lineups can’t compare.
Of course, there are difficulties with having so many prospects in your barn. Where do you race them all? As of right now, he is pointing Getaway to the upcoming Sunland Derby. All this three-year-old did was finish behind Baff’s other stars, Citizen Bull and Gaming in the BC Juvenile, with a fourth-place finish.
We saw how well Citizen Bull did in his 2025 debut and Barnes’ win in the San Vincente. We have to believe with those performances, other trainers are relieved Baff didn’t send any to Gulfstream Park for their three-year-old stakes series. Ditto for Fair Grounds and Aqueduct.
Before we hand the barn the three-year-old championship title, we should remember the Kentucky Derby will still have a twenty-horse field, and as we have seen in recent years, a field that size is fill with obstacles Still, we think it’s pretty cool having Baff showing off after being excluded from the race for years.
February 6, 2025: Lookin' Good So Far
So, what did we learn about the three-year-olds from last weekend’s two stakes for the crop? The two-year-old champ, Citizen Bull came back in a three-year-old debut without losing a step in the Bob Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. According to his jockey, Martin Garcia, he had “plenty of horse left.” This end-of-the-race energy is just what any connections pointing to the Triple Crown want to see, as the distances get longer as the prep races progress towards the mile and a quarter Kentucky Derby.
In the other stakes, The Holy Bull at Gulfstream, Burnham Square “overcame a lot of adversity” according to his Jockey Edgar Zayas. “He just doesn’t get tired” was the other comment we latched onto for the same reason mentioned above with Citizen Bull.
The results of these two races have us expecting the two colts to love the distances of their next starts. This coming weekend, we have two more stakes for the three-year-olds, The Risen Star and The Sunland Derby. We will await the after-race comments from the connections in those races, as we get familiarized with the crop.
January 30, 2025: Getting to Know Them
Now that January racing is out of the way, the “real” three-year-old stakes start rolling. Typically in February, the two-year-old stars from last year make their three-year-old debuts. Those are the horses we want to focus our handicapping on because we have some racing history to help us.
We like to see if they have grown as expected, if only to judge if they are ready to run at a high-level each month now through June and the Triple Crown series of races. It’s more important than ever for us to listen to their trainers, especially after a less than stellar 2025 debut. In those cases, you’ll probably hear how they needed to get a race under their girths after the months of vacation.
Of course, trainers and jockeys will tend to cover up any real concern if their charges don’t come out of the box swinging. So, it’s up to us to watch these races closely to read between the lines. Overall, it will be fun to get to know the crop better over this time frame, and with the questions of how they will performance at age three being answered along the way.
January 23, 2025: Old TImers' Day?
This weekend, we get the first BIG race day of 2025 with the Pegasus World Cup Invitational and Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Grade 1 stakes on tap. What makes this day of seven-Graded Stakes different from the others on the racing calendar is each one is for the older horses.
Of course, age discrimination is a troubling issue for humans, but for the equine athletes, race fans can’t help but delight in seeing some of our favorites still on the track. How can you say the nine-year-old Rockemperor doesn’t deserve our handicapping attention?
Just in case your week would not be complete without a three-year-old stakes, there’s the Southwest at Oaklawn Park too. Don’t worry you’ll miss it, because of the Gulfstream Park line-up of stakes, there is probably enough time between those races to roam elsewhere for a bit. And, if you don’t mind the older runners, the San Pasqual is scheduled at Santa Anita.
Our only problem with this many quality races is being disciplined in our handicapping. Do we really want to go crazy and wager on each one of them? Such a thing can happen when we’ve gone so long without such a day of racing.
Then again, if you don’t care because it is January and we’re probably stuck inside, go for it.
January 16, 2025: Community
As we look forward to a weekend with some interesting stakes to handicapping, like the featured LeComte for the three-year-olds at the Fair Grounds, we take a step back.
Race tracks are communities onto themselves, and as we have seen in Southern California these past weeks, they are also integral parts of larger communities.
Many of the Santa Anita community have had to evacuate, and in many cases have lost their homes to the horrific wildfires in Southern California. Many race fans have experienced first-hand the lost, while most of us have tried to assist from afar.
As we watch the races this weekend, maybe our good fortune at being safe in our homes will have us setting aside a part of our bankrolls intended for our handicapping, and use the funds to help. Afterall, it could be said the race fans are a far-reaching community that includes tracks everywhere.
January 9, 2025: So, What Do We Do?
Last week, we were whining about all the Kentucky Derby hype, given that it is just one race. However, ignoring all the hype doesn’t mean we ignore the so-called prep races. How do we not ignore the races?
We can handicap them like we do the two-year-old stakes later in the year. There are three reasons why we take this approach:
1. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
2. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
3. Most three-year-olds at the beginning of the year are lightly raced.
Alright, we are being silly, but the point we are trying to make is that there isn’t much to go on when using past performances in our handicapping. There might be successes noted during the crop’s two-year-old season, but will that success transfer to year three?
When handicapping two-year-old MSWs, we more than likely look at the first-timers’ workout results, or even their pedigrees, because that’s all we have to go on. Pedigrees don’t seem to help much with the two-year-olds because of the short distances of the MSWs. (Turf first-timers usually go longer, which makes a peek at the pedigrees beneficial to a certain degree.)
So, is there anything to base our handicapping decisions upon when there’s little in the past performances? Maybe there is, if you want to do a bit of work. Look at the trainers’ comments after their colt’s races, whether the race is as a two-year-old, or three-year-old. Often, coverage of the stakes held this time of year will have comments from many of the trainers, and not just the trainer of the winner.
With that suggestion, we go forth on the Derby Trail!
January 2, 2025: Happy Birthday Horses!
The Two-Year-Old crop has just turned Three on New Year's Day, as all horses have their birthday on the first day of the year. However, age doesn't seem to matter in some cases. Have you noticed the annual Kentucky Derby points hoopla is starting earlier, and earlier. It’s gotten to the point where the two-year-old restricted stakes run in the prior year are touted to be crucial to our Derby handicapping. Really?
Come on, it’s just one race on a calendar filled with graded stakes restricted to the three-year-olds. Does the media do this hype to keep current race fans interested? If so, maybe someone should tell them that we are interested in all stakes racing, and not just one race called the Kentucky Derby.
Now, if they are doing it because the race garners many non-race fans watching it. So, is the aim to make race fans out of these non-race fans? If so, maybe someone should ask them when was the last time they saw a story about horse racing receiving national attention? If there was such a story, then it probably was some negative one about the sport so many seem to love to hate.
Race fans will watch the graded stakes for both the two-year-olds and the three-year-olds, because it’s what we do, and regardless of the racing media hype, as encouraged by CDI and it’s silly points system.