February 26, 2026: Watch and Learn
Does it feel like more horses are off the Kentucky Derby trail than are on it right now? Maybe, it’s this never-ending winter causing us to forget the fact that the official start of Spring is less than a month away.
With a bunch of Kentucky Derby preps this weekend, we can regain our focus on who is left, who is off, and just who is who among the three-year-old crop. How do we do that? We can start by not so much handicapping the prep races, but watching the runners in the races. Who is looking green? Who is looking ready? What are the connections saying? Which jockeys have made their decisions as to their Kentucky Derby mounts.
All we have to do is watch the races, then read any post-race articles for comments. That’s all, because there is still time for some serious handicapping.
February 19, 2026: Who is this guy?
Forever Young won the Saudi Cup for the second straight year last weekend, making us wonder, who is this guy? It seems when a Japanese-bred races in major stakes here, like in the Breeders’ Cup, or Kentucky Derby, it becomes a matter of rooting for the home team, like in the Olympics. So, how do we ignore him now?
Forever Young’s record is growing beyond impressive. He not only won the Saudi Cup twice, but won the 2025 BC Classic, as well as, finishing third in the race the prior year. He was undefeated when entering the Kentucky Derby on 2024, where he finished third. It makes us shake our head. If he was bred in the U.S., would he be deemed the second coming of Pegasus?
Looking at his pedigree, we can easily see where the success comes. His sire is Real Steel, who is the son of Deep Impact, both bred in Japan. However, it’s going back even further where we find Sunday Silence. The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner was purchased by Zenya Yosida for over a billion yen. The move paid off as Sunday Silence was leading sire in Japan for eight-straight years. His offspring won 143 Graded races and 26 of those Group 1s.
So, why did it take so many generations for a horse like Forever Young to become a Japanese-bred international racing star? With Sunday Silence’s success as a sire, America breeders began sending their broodmares to him and subsequent Japanese champions. If you look closely at the bottom of Forever Young’s pedigree, you’ll see very familiar names. Overall, the pedigree shows us in-breeding to names like Mr. Prospector, Secretariat, Raise a Native, and Northern Dancer.
One never knows when the winning genes will pop-up in a horse, although breeders try to uncover the mystery. All race fans can do is give Forever Young his due, and perhaps not just write-off Japanese breds when handicapping.
February 12, 2026: Read ON!
There was a flurry of stakes action this past weekend. (Sorry about the winter weather reference.) The problem arising from all the recent cancellations of race cards has be the re-scheduling of stakes races. It’s been difficult to keep track of those races being run on schedule, and those not.
One way we have kept track has been through articles on various racing sites. For example, we saw a familiar name from last year, when Nitrogen was entered to run in the Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn. In an article we ran across, her trainer Mark Casse said he wasn’t pointing her 2026 debut for that particular race, but she was just full of energy. So, he ran her earlier than expected. The way she ran in the race confirmed his decision.
Reading articles about contenders, no matter if the stakes are for the three-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail, or older female champions like Nitrogen, we can get a sense from the trainers of their expectations for their charges. Of course, we often have to read between the lines, because their comments maybe boilerplate, “The horse is doing great.” That type of statement wants us to hear more of an explanation. Is the horse posting great workout times? Is the horse working on its usual schedule?
Reading article may not seem to you like the kind of handicapping which relies on past performances, but given our current circumstances of winter cancellations, we need to know how the changes in scheduling are influencing the runners. So, read on, it’s not like there’s much us to do when the snow is piling up and the wind chill is thirty below.
February 5, 2026: Gold Standard
To paraphrase Shakespeare, now is the winter of our discontent for race fans. At least this coming weekend, we have the Super Bowl to fill the void by the lack of racing. It’s the other event beginning this weekend that has our interest though. Yes, it’s time for the Winter Olympics.
You may wonder what similarities could there be between the sport of horse racing and the winter sports that are a part of the Olympics. However, watching the human athletes giving it their all, you may think of several similarities besides both humans and equines at their essence being athletes.
The figure skating may remind you of the gracefulness of the equines. This may be a stretch considering the figure skaters probably weigh the same as a large dog, whereas, the horses are around one-thousand pounds. Still, if you ever watched an equine race in slow-motion, they seem to glide through the air.
Okay, if you don’t see that similarity, how about the speed and agility of the skiers and snowboarders. What about the speed skaters, who make such tight turns, all the while trying to get around the leader of the pack? The snowboardcross works the same way. Snowboarders race against each other over jumps and bumps. They employ strategies just like the jockeys. When to make that move? Go too early and maybe run out of gas.
So, next time you watch the winter games, see what similarities you can discover. If nothing else, it shows an athlete is an athlete, whether they have two or four legs.
January 29, 2026: Winter Blues?
Race fans were sure to be psyched up about the stakes-laden card at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. Even though there were no Horses-of-the-Year as in previous years, the racing was competitive with full-fields; certainly, a situation we haven’t had in some weeks.
What a difference a week makes though, as we have been faced with cancellation after cancellation due to ice, snow, and unbearably cold temperatures throughout most of the country. Despair not, for the Florida tracks are still running, even though record-low temperatures are being predicted. However, if they cancel, then there’s always the palm trees at Santa Anita to make us feel warm, well, maybe less freezing.
There’s also racing to be found in the southern hemisphere, where it’s summer. Remember what summer felt like? Well, don’t dwell too long in that effort, but maybe you can tune in to some international racing anyway. The sport can be found around the globe, like in places where football as played here is an unknown commodity.
So, cheer up race fans. Winter can’t last forever, can it?
January 22, 2026: Just Relax and Enjoy
This weekend, we can go off-roading from the Trail to the Kentucky Derby, as the focus shifts to the older horses running at Gulfstream Park Saturday. Since the Pegasus Stakes were initiated ten years ago, race fans got to see champions from the prior year’s three-year-old crop hang around for just this race. Horses-of-the Year came back to run one last time before being retired.
Back in the day, there were plenty of Grade 1 stakes for older runners, like the Santa Anita Handicap of Sea Biscuit fame. Sure, we still have some stakes for older horses on the racing calendar, but they usually don’t have returning three-year-old champions. With horses retiring so early with few races run, there is lack of interest beyond the Triple Crown events.
So, our tip of the week is to just enjoy this race card at Gulfstream Park. After not having much in the way of stakes racing this time of year, our handicapping skills may be rusty. With this condition in mind, why not just relax waging a few bucks for the fun of it, and leave the heavy-duty handicapping for later in the year. No pressure, just pure enjoyment of the sport we love so much.
January 15, 2026: Points?
Are you getting lost on the “road to the Kentucky Derby”? It would be no surprise if you did every year since the points system began in 2012. One reason for this difficulty in following those races garnering Kentucky Derby points could be the fact that there are a total of 36 races giving them.
Sure, race fans get caught in the hype created by the racing media and want to know if any race restricted to the three-year-old crop gives points. We have to ask though, does it matter considering the 100-point races are those run in March, like the Arkansas Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, the Florida Derby, etc. Those are the races the outfits with the top of the crop runners put on their schedules, because even an in the-money finish will likely get their horse eligible for the Kentucky Derby.
So, why would the connections with these races in mind, even bother to run in the other preps earlier in the year? Well, you might notice that they don’t race in many, perhaps one at the most.
So, why do we pay attention to these early preps? An example of one is scheduled to be run this Saturday with the Grade 3 Lecomte at the Fair Grounds. Ironically, the winner will receive hype as a Kentucky Derby contender, but if you look through a list of past winners, most don’t even run in the Louisiana Derby. In 2013, Oxbow won the Lecomte. He didn’t run in the Louisiana Derby, and didn’t win another race until the Preakness that year. His best performance after that was a second-place finish in the BC Classic.
We can’t blame the connections for giving their horses a shot at the Kentucky Derby. Many horses will branch off to other divisions of racing like sprints, or turf races later in the year. So, for race fans, it’s just watching the races to get familiar with the crop.
January 8, 2026: Where are they?
The racing media has been all abuzz about the Eclipse Award nominees. It seems like every media person eligible to vote just has to give a dissertation about who they voted for and why they were correct in their votes.
What this mere race fan found interesting was the complaint by one voter on the lack of quality horses to even nominate. Of course, Grade 1 level runners don’t run like they used to back in the day. However, with different horses winning at the top levels in each division, maybe, a parity of sorts exists.
Think about it. Would you go to a track and see the races if there was a dominant runner racing? Or do you go to a track on most occasions hoping to see competitive fields racing? We probably go for both reasons because we are race fans and that’s what race fans do.
The handicapper in us would rather see a full field, thus, giving us many betting options. How many times have we talked about removing the chalk from the handicapping equation. Who wants to bet a wad of money on a heavy favorite, only to get a dismal ROI?
The best example we can think of is the 2025 race performances of reigning Horse-of-the-Year, Thorpedo Anna. Betting monies flowed to her whenever she raced, despite her performances not up to the bar she set a year earlier. There were other horses worthy of us looking over in her races. It seems that they were overlooked then, resulting in this Eclipse Award concern of where are all the quality horses?
So, the handicapping lesson here is for race fans to consider an entire field. You might just find some overlooked future Eclipse Award nominee.
January 1, 2026: Happy New Year! Happy Birthday!
Happy Birthday Horses! Yes, January 1st of every year marks the birthday of racehorses. The simple explanation is that it’s done to reduce confusion in race conditions. Think of what would happen if a race was restricted to three-year-olds, and run on the first Saturday in May, but the horses were eligible only using their actual birthdays? That’s right, only those horses born before the first Saturday in May would be eligible.
Now, this date thing may not eliminate the majority of the three-year-old crop for the race, but what about those Kentucky Derby preps? They are run January through April. Many times, you’ll hear a trainer say their horse didn’t run in the Triple Crown races because the horse was a late foal, and being so, hasn’t reached the level of maturity of those born earlier in the year. The great Arrogate is an example of a horse making a late debut, who became top of the three-year-old crop in spite of it.
As we race fans prepare to jump on the Kentucky Derby trail, we usually take note of those horses having a few races under their girths as two-year-olds, and those making their race debuts at three. Was the delay caused by the horse’s actual birthday, or are they just slow growers?
It’s just one more item to add to our Kentucky Derby prep handicapping, with more to follow.
Happy New Year!
December 18, 2025: It's that Time of Year
T’was the week before Christmas, and all through the track,
Not a creature was stirring, except a barn cat.
The horses were blanketed to keep from the cold,
Feed buckets awaiting to be filled with all they could hold.
The humans, long before dawn, fast asleep as well,
As the snow fell, and fell, and fell.
Both equines and humans alike dreamt of the same,
A New Year of wins for hopes of racing fame!
Happy Holidays! See you all next year!